What If? (a look at tennessee football minus Lane Kiffin)

As there are in any equation, many variables will ultimately effect and shape the eventual outcome.  The apparent downward spiral of the University of Tennessee football program (and really athletic program as a whole) is no different.  There are many different variables that led the program down the weary road to where it now finds itself, at the lowest point in program history.  That statement may seem a bit melodramatic, but it is hard to argue when the program has just suffered through its first back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since 1910-1911.  Yes, I would call the worst two seasons in 100 years an all time low for Tennessee football, and although we never could have imagined it at the time, it all began in 2008 with the firing of one Phillip Fulmer.

Now, lots of people will suggest to you that they don't like to deal in “what ifs.”  They will state that it is simply a waste of time to worry and argue over what mighta woulda coulda maybe shoulda if we only knew what was gonna happen.  Seemingly, there isn’t much to gain from these types of conversations except for an ensuing headache.  However, if you are a sports fan, your world is built around the hypothetical.  Think about it; when you are talking sports you likely spend more time talking about might have been and speculating about what could be than you do discussing what actually happened.  It is those conversations and prevailing interest in them that allow sports writers and sports talk radio to even exist. So, in that speculative spirit, let’s examine a couple hypothetical situations concerning Big Orange Football.

Situation #1 Phil Fulmer never gets fired.
It maybe a hard thing to imagine for Vol fans, as most were at least ok with the move to oust Phil, but chances are a Fulmer coached team would have fared better than 5-7 this season.  Understanding this is all guessing and projecting, let’s look at what might have been.  It is difficult to project what players would have been in the line-up three years removed from a Fulmer coached team, but we will make a few assumptions just for kicks.  In the backfield you would almost certainly have Tajh Boyd taking snaps as the Tennessee QB.  The former UT commitment burst on to the national scene this year as he led Clemson to one of their most successful seasons on record.  This multitalented playmaker has proven to be the real deal, leading the ACC in passing yards and touchdowns, and even appeared on many Heisman watch lists earlier in the season.  I am not blaming UT’s past two seasons in any way on Tyler Bray.  Most agree that Bray is an exceptional talent and could be a special player; however, his stats in big match ups when his team is not favored are less than stellar.  Boyd is a proven winner and Tennessee would have been more than happy with him I believe. 
Then there is the defensive side of the ball to consider.  I’m not certain what players may have been on the field for UT, but I do know who would have been in the booth calling the shots, John Chavis.  You can say what you want about how he always gets great talent etc. etc., but the bottom line is the guy oversees outstanding defenses.  Since he made the move to LSU, he has had their defense playing at a national championship level.  It is hard to recall a Chavis defense that was not at least classified as good.

That all being said, I think absolute worst case scenario Fulmer goes 8-4 this year.  Yes, of course, in any season anything could happen and you can never be certain, but let’s run it all down.  UT won 5 games this year; a Fulmer coached team wins all of the same games.  Coach Fulmer simply did not lose to Kentucky, so that gets us to 6 wins.  I think that Tennessee defeats the injury ridden South Carolina team they faced rather easily, which gets you to 7 wins. I also believe that the Florida and Georgia games were both very winnable this year, and I believe we would have won at least one of them with our hypothetical team and staff.  It is worth nothing that Phil lost more than 4 regular season games only once (discounting 2008 when he learned he was being terminated) in his tenure.  His predecessors have lost 5 or more regular season games in the past 3 years.

Situation #2  Derek Dooley is hired immediately after Fulmer.
It is a little known fact that Dooley was interviewed for the job prior to the Lane Kiffin hire in 2009.  What if they would have hired him at that point in time?  Well, first off fans would have probably been upset and confused as to where this guy came from.  They would have not been pleased in the least with the hire I don’t believe.  It is a bit more difficult to project this situation in my opinion but we’ll give it a shot.  You most likely would still have Boyd as your QB.  Tennessee would not have been able to retain Chavis as he would have left when Fulmer did regardless.  So, how would it be any different than what we currently have?  First off, Dooley would not have had to take over a completely depleted program.  Please understand clearly what Lane Kiffin did.  He basically came riding in, kicked off many “Fulmer guys,” replaced them with his own, and then took them and his commitments with him to USC.  Now, it’s a bit more complicated than that but not too much.  Think about how much we have heard about the youth of Tennessee.  It is because they have no Jr. class and a depleted Sr. class!  Kiffin destroyed a whole class of players, and that is just not something that can happen to a school in the SEC if they are going to be successful.  So, Dooley would have inherited a much better roster and recruiting class.  Also, this past year would have been Dooley’s third.  All of his freshmen and sophomores that were all over the field would likely be playing under a Jr. or Sr. that never got destroyed by Kiffin.  I would say at the very worst this team would be 7-5 and going bowling.  This would not be satisfactory for Vol fans, but it would be much better than where we currently find ourselves.

What AB Sees:  Whatever your hypothetical opinion may be, I think one thing is clear, the Fulmer firing and the Lane Kiffin hire has equaled disaster for this storied program.   Tennessee is one of the top 10 college football programs of all time, and Kiffin treated it as merely a footstool to attain his real goal at USC.  Tennessee is in a much better position today if Kiffin is not a black mark on our proud history.  There is plenty of blame to pass around.  Mike Hamilton has certainly paid the price for all that has transpired in Knoxville in recent years, as he is no longer the athletic director.  The whole athletic department has gone south in a hurry under his watch, and he was rightfully held accountable.  Derek Dooley also doesn’t receive a free pass. Yes, he inherited a less than desirable situation, but he knew that when he took the job.  His honeymoon period is long over and he will have to face the fire all year long in the 2012 season.  It is time for him and the Tennessee football team to stop making excuses, accept some blame, and start producing wins.  The Tennessee tradition of excellence demands it!  Tennessee fans are tired of living in the hypothetical. 
Not telling you how it is, just what I see!